Current Leading Economic Indicators

Last updated 9/25/23

Year over year sales continue to decline (-18.8%); most likely as a result of low supply. California single family home supply for August 2023 was reported at only 2.4 months. This is 17.2% lower than it was in August 2022. Low supply is also the likely reason for the 3.3% increase in statewide median home prices. The August 2023 median price now stands at $859,800.

With a traditional affordability index at 16%, one would expect some price damage – especially given rates in the 7%+_ area. However, that is not the case. Historically, median California median prices tend to generally drop between August and February. Let’s see if that is the case this time.

It appears people are not willing to give up those 4% or less mortgages to move up to a larger home. Hence, supply remains low.

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