Current Momentum Indicators & Wealth Stage Charts

Last update 10/4/23

Median price momentum finally crossed into positive territory in August 2023. Year-over-year supply decreased again thereby supporting price increases in spit of higher interest rates. Sales momentum continues below the 0% line – probably due to sellers not wanting to give up those 3%+- mortgages. Thus, California supply is still low st only 2.4 months.

The last traditional affordability figure published as of the above date applied to Q2 2023. Mortgage terms are a component of the affordability calculation. The current level is 16%. Usually there is a sell single at 20% when the index is falling since the time lag in reporting gives you time to prepare to sell at 20% . However, traditional affordability is now falling. If history repeats, we won’t be buying until affordability approaches the 40% level. We believe the only factor mitigating median price movement to the downside is supply which was reported at 245 months for August 2023.

As we expected, California single family median price momentum crossed the 0% line in August suggesting we may be back in the wealth building stage. We’ll keep an eye on this as interest rates and affordability may bring us back down below the 0% line. If rates stabilize and supply remains low, continued upward year-over-year momentum is a real possibility.

Double Click on First Graph