General negative median price trends began in May 2025.. Supply increases coupled with a very low affordability level (18% for Q4 2025) and declining consumer sentiment  are the likely cause of median price softness. Year-over-year sales momentum fell below the 0% line in February 2026 to -3.1%. California supply is still low st at 4. months as of February 2026 but watch out; supply is approaching the 4.5 to 5-month level which calls for caution.

The last traditional affordability figure published as of the above date applied to Q4 2025. Mortgage terms are a component of the affordability calculation. The last reported level is 18%. This is up slightly  from the 17% level of the previous quarter. Usually there is a sell single at 20% when the index is falling since the time lag in reporting gives you time to prepare to sell at 20% . However, traditional affordability has been bouncing between 15% and 18% since mid 2022. If history repeats, we won’t be buying until affordability approaches the 40%+- level. We believe the only factor mitigating median price movement to the downside is supply which was reported at 4 months for February 2026.

California single family median price momentum fell below the 0% line in May 2025. Since then median price momentum has been negative for three out of the ten months ended February 2026.  We’ll keep an eye on this as interest rates, high prices, and affordability may bring us back down below the 0% line. If rates drop and supply remains low, continued level or minor year-over-year momentum increases might ensue. 

What does all this mean? Well, to us it means there’s no rush to buy. Rising supply, low affordability, low consumer sentiment, and median price momentum around the 0% line leave us in a hold to sell mode (with a leaning more toward the latter).

Check out the data and tell us what you think.